COSMO Wave 1.12

Background

To support federal response efforts, Impact Canada is leading the implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Behavioural Insights (BI) Tool on COVID-19 in the Canadian context. This work is led in collaboration with the Public Opinion Research Team within the Privy Council Office’s (PCO) Communications and Consultation Secretariat, which supports the Prime Minister’s Office in coordinating government communications in accordance with key priorities.

Methodology

With a longitudinal design, the study follows 2,000 participants recruited from an online panel over sixteen data collection waves. New participants are added only when an original panelist stops participating.

Respondents are a representative mix of Canadian adults aged 18 years and older and results are weighted using 2016 Statistics Canada census data to mirror the population distribution in Canada.

Considerations

When interpreting the COSMO results it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may have influenced the responses of survey participants (see Annex C). During the Wave 12 data collection period (March 17-23, 2021), COVID-19 cases were rising in Canada and in other parts of the world. Media coverage focused heavily on the new, more contagious COVID-19 variants and the onset of the third wave of the pandemic in Canada.

The Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) vaccines had been approved for use in Canada and approximately 7% of the population had been vaccinated (as of March 17).

Prior to, and during the collection period, there was significant news coverage of the AstraZeneca vaccine. In early March, Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) recommended that the AstraZeneca vaccine not be given to Canadians aged 65 and older. Several EU countries also announced that they were pausing the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to reported side-effects. NACI’s updated recommendation to only provide the AstraZeneca vaccine to those 55+ was announced after the Wave 12 data collection period.

Public Risk Perceptions

The proportion of respondents who indicated that “the worst of the crisis is behind us” increased sharply between Waves 10 (10%), 11 (25%) and 12 (35%), as the number of respondents who think we are “currently experiencing the worst of the crisis” and think “the worst is behind us” declined. Younger respondents are most optimistic – respondents aged 18-34 are more likely to think that “the worst of the crisis is behind us” (45%), compared to older age groups (33% of respondents aged 35-54 and 30% of respondents 55+). Similarly, the proportion of respondents who think that COVID-19 feels like it is “spreading fast,” declined from 55% in Wave 10 to 42% in Wave 11 and 40% in Wave 12.

Information Sources

Trust in and use of government information sources (e.g., federal public health leaders, daily press conferences) was highest early on in the pandemic and has declined slowly since. In Wave 12, use of and trust in government information sources about COVID-19 rebounded slightly after reaching the lowest levels COSMO has observed since data collection began. Trust remains the highest in government health agencies (56%), provincial public health leaders (53%), and federal public health leaders (51%).

Across time, respondents aged 55+ have consistently reported the highest levels of trust in government sources, and respondents aged 18-34 remain the most distrustful. Women are also more trusting of government information sources than men. For example, 60% of women reported that they trust Government health agencies compared to 52% of men. Trust in government information sources also varies by province/territory. In Wave 12, trust in government information sources about COVID-19 was the highest in the Atlantic Provinces and lowest in Alberta and the Northwest Territories.

In Wave 12, respondents were asked whether they approve of the federal government’s response to the pandemic. 30% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed and an additional 50% were neutral. 39% of respondents aged 55+ agreed or strongly agreed that they approve of the federal government’s response, compared to 20% of respondents aged 18-34 and 28% of respondents aged 35-54. Respondents in the Atlantic provinces were the most supportive of the federal government’s response (45%) and respondents in Alberta and the Northwest Territories were the least supportive (20%).

Respondents were also asked whether they approve of their provincial/territorial government’s response to the pandemic. 34% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed and an additional 48% were neutral. 47% of respondents aged 55+ agreed or strongly agreed that they approve of their provincial/territorial government’s response, compared to 20% of respondents aged 18-34 and 31% of respondents aged 35-54. Respondents in the Atlantic provinces (59%), Quebec (51%), and British Columbia and the Yukon (45%) were the most supportive of their provincial/territorial government’s response, and respondents in Alberta and the Northwest Territories (16%) and Ontario (22%) were the least supportive.

Compliance with Protective Behaviours

The majority of COSMO respondents report always or almost always complying with most public health measures such as mask wearing (84%), frequent hand washing (73%), and physical distancing (72%). Despite worries that individuals would float public health measures post-vaccination, respondents who have already been vaccinated (n=215), reported similar or higher levels of adherence to public health behaviours. However, 40% of all respondents – and 36% of vaccinated respondents – reported having visited with friends or family indoors in the past two weeks (up from 30% in Wave 11). This suggests that respondents are finding avoiding social gatherings to be more difficult than following other public health measures.

Mental Health

Reported life satisfaction rebounded slightly in Wave 12 after reaching the lowest point COSMO has observed in Wave 11. Just over a third of respondents (40%) are very satisfied/satisfied with their lives (up from 35% in Wave 11), while 21% are very dissatisfied/dissatisfied (down from 24% in Wave 11). Despite the modest increase in life satisfaction, high numbers of respondents continue to report feeling anxious (44%), lonely (39%), and depressed (37%) either occasionally or most/all of the time.

Disaggregation of the data by age suggests the pandemic has been particularly difficult for respondents aged 18-34 with regard to mental health. Young people – young women in particular – are reporting higher levels of loneliness and depression. For example, 24% of respondents aged 18-34 reported feeling lonely most or all of the time, compared to 14% of respondents aged 35-54 and 13% of respondents aged 55+.

Vaccine confidence

COSMO asks respondents about their intentions to vaccinate across several different measures to add nuance to our growing understanding of hesitancy and its drivers. Overall, vaccine intentions increased in Wave 12 and more respondents indicated that they will get a vaccine as soon as it is available to them. At the time of data collection, 10% of respondents indicated that they had already received at least one dose of a vaccine (up from 4% in Wave 11). These respondents were excluded from the vaccine intentions questions.

Using a categorical question, respondents were asked: ‘If a COVID-19 vaccine became available to you, would you get vaccinated, or not?’ with the following response options: ‘Yes, I would get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it became available to me’; ‘Yes, I would eventually get a COVID-19 vaccine, but would want to wait a bit’; ‘No, I would not get a COVID-19 vaccine’; and, ‘Not sure’. We identified four primary segments of respondents based on their intentions to get vaccinated: strong supporters, who plan to get vaccinated right away (61% in Wave 12, up from 58% in Wave 11); choice deferrers, who plan to get vaccinated but want to wait a bit (21% in Wave 12, down from 24% in Wave 11); hesitators, who are unsure (8% in Wave 12, consistent with Wave 11); and non-supporters, who do not want a vaccine (10% in Wave 12, up from 9% in Wave 11).

When asked whether they have a preference for which COVID-19 vaccine they want to receive among the four vaccines that have been approved in Canada (Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson), 48% said they have no preference, 39% said they have a preference, and 13% were unsure. Respondents who said they have a preference or were unsure (n=964) were asked a follow-up question about whether they would receive the AstraZeneca or Johnson & Johnson vaccines. Less than a third of respondents (23%) indicated that they would be willing to receive either vaccine and 28% said they would not be willing to receive either of the two vaccines. 24% said they would be willing to receive the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, but not willing to receive the AstraZeneca vaccine. 22% of respondents were unsure. Only 4% indicated that they would be willing to receive the AstraZeneca vaccine, but not willing to receive the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Returning to Normal

When asked about the likelihood of re-engaging in behaviors that were normal pre-pandemic, only a minority of respondents thought it was likely that they will go to a large indoor gathering (30%, up from 22% in Wave 11), fly on a plane (17%, up from 13% in Wave 11), or travel to the US (11%) in the next year. Young respondents (18-34) were more likely to say that they will engage in these behaviours in the next year, and older respondents (55+) reported that they are less likely to do so.

Travel Intentions and Border Measures

A majority of respondents indicated that they would like to see both US restrictions (83%) and international restrictions (84%) remain in place for 1-6+ months. Despite the rollout of vaccines, travel intentions and intentions to fly on a plane within the next year remain low. There is also low comfort with increasing travel with certain countries. The only country where respondents have become somewhat more comfortable with increased travel is Australia (13% in Wave 9, 17% in Wave 11 and 19% in Wave 12).

In Wave 12 respondents were asked to indicate whether they thought stricter travel measures (i.e., a requirement to take a COVID-19 test at the airport upon arrival, a requirement to self-isolate in designated facilities, and a requirement to show proof of COVID-19 immunization) would effectively reduce the risk of importing COVID-19 cases. A majority of respondents thought these measures would be effective/very effective or moderately effective. A requirement to take a COVID-19 test at the airport was seen as the most effective.